Trump risks backlash if he expands trade war, as tariffs are unpopular in six key states

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The numbers listed below show the proportion who believe tariffs will “protect American jobs and help the U.S. economy,” followed by those who think they will “raise the costs of consumer goods and hurt the U.S. economy,” then those who say the actions will not have much of an effect.

  • Illinois: 24 percent/43 percent/20 percent (-19)
  • Indiana: 29 percent/41 percent/19 percent (-12)
  • Missouri: 28 percent/44 percent/14 percent (-16)
  • Pennsylvania: 28 percent/46 percent/14 percent (-18)
  • Tennessee: 28 percent/41 percent/17 percent (-13)
  • Texas: 33 percent/40 percent/15 percent (-7)

A spreading trade conflict could have ripple effects as Republicans try to defend their House and Senate majorities. Pennsylvania and Texas both hold important Senate races as well as a handful of battleground House contests with mostly Republicans defending seats.

Voters in Indiana, Missouri and Tennessee will decide on three of this year’s most competitive Senate races, in which Democrats try to hold off GOP challengers. Meanwhile, a few Republican incumbents will also try to keep their seats in Illinois, a major farm state.

While NBC and Marist polled those six states in recent weeks, tariffs also could affect important races in farm states such as North Dakota and Montana.

Trump’s tariff policy has added challenges for GOP candidates as the party faces a difficult path toward keeping its House majority. Strong headline economic numbers have helped Republicans, but the economy alone may not be enough for the GOP to overcome increased enthusiasm among Democratic voters. Likewise, several prominent conservative leaders and groups, including the influential Koch brothers’ donor network, have criticized the tariffs.

“We urge the administration not to lose sight of the farmers, manufacturers, and small businesses across the country who are getting crushed by this misguided trade war,” said Tim Phillips, a top Koch network official. “Imposing steep tariffs and bailing out select industries with government subsidies isn’t how you punish China; it’s how you become China.”

The antipathy toward Trump’s tariffs partly explains why the GOP has brought tax reform to the forefront in recent days with plans to vote on a proposal to make individual tax cuts approved as part of last year’s Republican tax law permanent. The plan appears at least partly designed to put pressure on Democrats after the party contended the GOP plan did too much to help the wealthy and corporations.

Tax reform has polled relatively poorly and not given the GOP the messaging boost that it had hoped when the party passed the legislation in December.

— CNBC’s
Brian Schwartz
contributed to this report.

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