Central banks in Europe are starting to wind down their QE programs and the Federal Reserve has already done so, prompting a so-called “taper tantrum” in 2013 as extra financial liquidity in the economy was reduced. Central banks are keen to “normalize” monetary policy and end a decade of unconventional policies, however.
Paul Donovan, chief global economist at UBS Wealth Management, told CNBC on Monday that he feared a crisis of a different nature could be on the horizon, but that investors and bureaucrats were not prepared.
“One of the questions I have, is that this has become a dominant narrative, that the crisis was such a big effect that it’s seared onto the mind of investors and policymakers and everything is seen through the prism of the last crisis,” Donovan said.
“But is this just living in the past? And, in fact, the next crisis is going to be something totally different but because we were so affected by what happened 10, 11 years ago we can’t break away from that memory.”
Bean agreed, saying it was “reasonable” to believe the next crisis could be different in character from the one we’ve experienced.
“For instance, the tightening of U.S. policy is putting upward pressure on the dollar and you’ve seen a lot of emerging market countries and companies borrowing in dollars. And it’s looked attractive because interest rates were low.
“But now they’re potentially being hit by a double-whammy of higher interest rates and an appreciating dollar. I’m not saying there is going to be a crisis there but it’s another point of vulnerability.”
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