However, OPEC thinks American production will top out sometime in the back half of the 2020s and ultimately fall back to about 17 million barrels a day by 2040.
It’s worth noting OPEC ministers incorrectly predicted in 2014 that the oil price downturn would force high-cost U.S. shale producers to shut down production. Instead, shale drillers drove down their costs and OPEC was forced to cut output to end the rout.
Strong growth from the United States, Brazil, Canada and Kazakhstan in the coming years won’t leave much room for OPEC to put more barrels on the market, according to the forecast. Howeer, the cartel thinks it will start growing its output around 2025. After playing second fiddle to the United States, OPEC projects its output will grow by about 8 million barrels a day to nearly 40 million barrels a day between 2025 and 2040.
Meanwhile, the world’s current top producer, Russia, will probably see its production remain flat at about 11.2 million barrels a day through 2023. That’s because Russian investment will likely go towards preventing further production declines, and sanctions against Moscow will prevent the industry from investing in shale, deepwater and Arctic drilling.
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